What Trump’s Presidency Could Mean for Nova Scotia: A Brief Primer
The results of the American election are in and Donald Trump will once again be returning to the White House in January 2025.
Along with being our southern neighbour, the United States is Canada’s largest trade partner — Canada and the United States have the world’s most comprehensive trading relationship. The Canada-United States border is also the world’s longest international border, spanning almost 9000 km.
With Trump promising an “America first” agenda, we wanted to examine how Nova Scotia, in particular, might be impacted over the next four years by the new administration.
This is what we found out Trump’s presidency could mean for Nova Scotia:
Cody West
tariffs
The United States is by far Nova Scotia’s largest destination for international good exports.
Trump, however, has proposed implementing a 10 per cent tariff on global imports across the board. According to the Washington think tank, The Peterson Institute for International Economics, Canada is not necessarily exempt from these tariffs. If Trump goes through with it — and his track record suggests he might — this would have a significant impact on Canada’s economy (read more here).
The trouble is that Trump’s proposed policies are particularly fuzzy, and he hasn’t explained what products would be subjected to them or how they would be imposed.
There’s also the fact that the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is up for review in 2026, and threats of tariffs could be used as a bargaining tool.
By product category, Nova Scotia domestic exports include:
Farm, fishing, intermediate food products
Motor vehicles, parts
Consumer goods
Forestry products
Chemicals, plastics, rubber products
Metal, non-metallic mineral products
Electronics, electrical equipment
What goods would be taxed is anyone’s guess — in fact, Canadian officials have supposedly spent months attempting to get some clarity from Trump associates to no avail. If they are instituted, however, Nova Scotia’s economy could end up paying a significant price.
Rijk Van De Kaa
military spending
Being a member of NATO, Canada is required to spend 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on military spending. This is a target Canada has historically failed to achieve, although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently promised to meet it by 2032.
Trump has said previously that the United States would not protect allies who fail to meet this military spending threshold. In fact, the Republic Congressman Mike Turner said last month that Trudeau is a threat to the stability and success of NATO (read the press release here), which means that the pressure is on.
Nova Scotia is home to more than 40 per cent of Canada’s military assets. It also hosts the country’s largest military base, CFB Halifax — the headquarters for Maritime Forces Atlantic and the home port to the Royal Canadian Navy Atlantic fleet — along with the 12 Wing Shearwater and CFB Greenwood.
If Canada is pushed to increase its military spending faster as a result of pressure from the Trump administration, there’s reason to believe Nova Scotia will see some impact.
Hermes Rivera
immigration
On the campaign trail, Trump has repeatedly promised to deport millions who have entered the United States illegally. If he does, this could lead to an increase in asylum seekers at the Canadian border.
Ontario and Quebec receive the highest number of asylum claims in Canada, with the former receiving 46 per cent and the latter receiving 44 per cent in 2023. Resources in those provinces are severely strained, however, and there is talk in Ottawa of relocating asylum seekers across Canada.
Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has said, so far, that he will not accept any attempt to resettle thousands of asylum seekers and that such a proposal is “simply unacceptable.”
Houston’s hard stance has been criticized by other politicians: Liberal Leader Zach Churchill called it hypocritical given Houston’s aims to double Nova Scotia’s population by 2060; NDP Leader Claudia Chender noted that, while such a view might be “directed as criticism of government, it lives as xenophobia and racism on the ground.”
Nova Scotia Immigration Minister Jill Balser followed up by saying that such a relocation would need to be accompanied by resources and support.
As a result, it remains to be seen what could happen if Trump’s threat of mass deportations becomes a reality and the Canadian border sees an influx of asylum seekers that Ontario and Quebec are not equipped to handle.
Assessing how exactly Nova Scotia might be impacted is speculative at best, and we haven’t even gotten to how other Trump’s response to other geopolitical conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and Palestine, could cause reverberating effects worldwide.
All this is to say, fasten your seatbelts because it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Lead Photo: Hayes Potter.